Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 27.519038 30.488618 33.865242 38.040388 43.139150 49.267810 57.362191
2025-05-25 22.952812 26.636678 31.181998 37.375042 45.897908 57.751806 76.659737
2025-06-01 20.006589 23.975699 29.167131 36.782802 48.346223 66.710599 102.390792
2025-06-08 17.916953 21.986178 27.547929 36.198217 50.468843 76.085073 137.507709
2025-06-15 16.378762 20.476729 26.278656 35.752857 52.565853 86.492881 189.399368
2025-06-22 15.219392 19.326442 25.317964 35.529284 54.911474 98.876906 275.582322
2025-06-29 14.150027 18.176431 24.183077 34.761578 55.950889 109.117053 396.822997
2025-07-06 13.762550 17.974620 24.466924 36.479441 62.674846 140.976206 1026.512642
2025-07-13 13.033810 17.182293 23.696454 36.102352 64.601562 160.531196 2783.565903
2025-07-20 12.503207 16.645792 23.280652 36.319553 68.089040 191.980192 NaN
2025-07-27 12.048357 16.187775 22.941882 36.621333 71.971359 234.364323 NaN
2025-08-03 11.582741 15.675816 22.454443 36.525756 74.748402 279.825038 NaN
2025-08-10 11.083681 15.084199 21.785966 35.968418 76.076350 323.340248 NaN
2025-08-17 10.718941 14.689096 21.436032 36.067617 79.688795 409.913828 NaN
2025-08-24 10.341304 14.248828 20.965015 35.818799 82.086318 508.330908 NaN
2025-08-31 9.974030 13.804524 20.450461 35.393260 83.733438 624.736082 NaN
2025-09-07 9.642906 13.403022 19.985431 35.022118 85.518819 791.523797 NaN
2025-09-14 9.357860 13.064590 19.614639 34.831340 88.056797 1082.778387 NaN
2025-09-21 9.033821 12.643766 19.056731 34.098953 87.981596 1320.117867 NaN
2025-09-28 8.985221 12.693639 19.414165 35.767369 100.162394 5580.808519 NaN
2025-10-05 8.734039 12.377422 19.024627 35.404526 102.133758 16867.492626 NaN
2025-10-12 8.553692 12.177261 18.853756 35.615810 107.535978 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 8.391234 12.000889 18.718272 35.908410 113.843676 NaN NaN